This card30d 90d 1y All-time
Alloy Adam #an1b 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome · Black Refractor /99 · PSA 9
Black Refractor /99
ScarcityNumbered to 99 · 1 in 84 packs · PSA has graded 12x more base copies
Print run 99, as stated by PSA’s parallel list and a published checklist and geepeekay.com. Topps’ stated pack odds: Black Refractor 1:84. PSA has graded 12 of the base card and 1 of this parallel (all grades). Graded counts are not print runs.
PSA pop1
PSA 9 · 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome →
Never sold — estimate
PSA pop · this parallel
1
Card #
All grades · value and PSA population
ALLOY ADAM ACTIVEno PSA 9 listed on eBay right now
RAW (UNGRADED) — NOT A GRADED VALUE
$20
3 raw sales used for this value
view raw sales →
Front
Back
Price history · PSA 9
On-the-record sales go back as far as PSA reports them — late 2017 for GPK — plus eBay-tracked and raw sales as they land.
🗑️ The Garbologist says…
Too Thin To Call
The Garbologist sniffed around the sales pile.
- Nobody's actually sold this exact card and grade on record, so there's no live market to read — the price you see is a modeled estimate, not a realized sale.
- With this little to go on, the honest answer is we can't call a direction — one auction would swing the whole read.
Automated analysis generated from this card’s real recorded sales and PSA population data — no opinions, no predictions guaranteed. Entertainment and research only, not financial advice.
Alloy Adam — across every card
Subject page →Every Alloy Adam card we track — how the character is moving, not just this one grade.
🧬 Should I slab it?
Keep it rawAbout 1 in 2 copies of 2021 Chrome cards get a 10, and a 9 is worth $27 — less than the $92 it costs to grade. Even a 10 ($60) would leave you about -$32 after costs, not more than raw.
Expected value if gradedunder $0 (the likely slab, $41, is $51 short of the $92 all-in cost)
Raw value today$20 (from 3 raw sales)
VerdictKeep it raw
Even a PSA 10 would not beat the raw value.
Chance of a PSA 10
45%
all 2021 Chrome cards · 3,615 graded
PSA 10 value
$60
today · ~$60 by Feb 11, 2027
PSA 9 value
$27
today · ~$27 by Feb 11, 2027
All-in cost
$92
PSA fee $60 + shipping both ways $32
How these numbers work
All-in cost $92: PSA Standard tier fee $60 per card, insured shipping to PSA ~$12, PSA insured return shipping ~$20. Sending it to your PSA Vault instead skips return shipping (vault intake and storage are free): ~$72 all-in, so a graded copy would net ~under $0.
Grade odds (all 2021 Chrome cards, 3,615 PSA-graded): 10 · 45%, 9 · 46%, 8 · 7%, 7 or lower · 2%. People send their best copies, so a random raw copy usually grades a bit lower.
Values when it comes back (~95 days, about Feb 11, 2027): today's values (the set has no clear 3-month trend).
Expected value if graded = each grade's chance × its value, minus the all-in cost. A guide, not a guarantee — centering and corners on your copy decide the grade.
Grade odds (all 2021 Chrome cards, 3,615 PSA-graded): 10 · 45%, 9 · 46%, 8 · 7%, 7 or lower · 2%. People send their best copies, so a random raw copy usually grades a bit lower.
Values when it comes back (~95 days, about Feb 11, 2027): today's values (the set has no clear 3-month trend).
Expected value if graded = each grade's chance × its value, minus the all-in cost. A guide, not a guarantee — centering and corners on your copy decide the grade.
